On Friday, the 50-stock index edged higher by 275.50 points, or 1.16%, to close at 24,050.60.
Indian equity exchanges NSE and BSE will remain shut on Tuesday, April 14 on account of Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti.
Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research) at Centrum Broking said the bulls have regained control after a brief pause in the previous session, with the Nifty closing above the psychological 24,000 mark. The broader market structure remains positive, and a further short-covering rally could push the index towards the 24,300–24,500 zone in the near term, he said.
“The base continues to shift higher, with immediate support now placed around 23,800 levels. Momentum indicators and oscillators are also signaling strength, as the RSI has moved above the 50 mark. Meanwhile, the India VIX has declined sharply by 25% during the week, easing towards the 19 mark. Any further softening in volatility is likely to provide additional comfort to the bulls,” Jain added.
1. Iran-Israel war
Amid a two-week ceasefire in the 44-day Iran/Israel/US war, Vice President JD Vance led-team began negotiations on Saturday with Iran aimed at ending the war in the Middle East. On Friday, Vance warned Iran not to “play” Washington but said he hoped peace talks would have a “positive” outcome.
“We’re going to try to have a positive negotiation,” AFY reported, quoting Vance before the take-off from Joint Base Andrews outside Washington.The outcome of the meeting will be closely watched and will significantly impact markets, either way.
2. Q4 earnings
D-Street action will be driven by Q4 earnings where 50 BSE-listed companies will report their March quarter results. In the Nifty pack will be Wipro, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank.
Among the widely tracked broader market stocks whose earnings will be reported, include ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company, Anand Rathi Share And Stock Brokers, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company, Angel One, HDFC Asset Management Company, HDFC Life Insurance Company, YES Bank and Mastek.
3. US markets
While war-led sentiments continue to linger on global stock markets, Indian markets will take cues from the developments on Wall Street.
Frontline indices ended mixed on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 269.23 points, or 0.56%, to close at 47,916.57, while the S&P 500 fell 7.77 points, or 0.11%, to 6,816.89. The tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 80.48 points, or 0.35%, to settle at 22,902.89.
4. Crude oil
Global benchmark crude oil prices cooled-off amid talks on a peace deal between the warring factions. Any price spike could lead to a further sell-off in global equity markets, including India.
The US WTI crude oil futures ended at $95.630 per barrel on Friday, dropping $2.24 or 2.29% in a single session while Brent witnessed a surge of 1.73% or $1.66 per barrel to close at $95.20.
5. FII / DII action
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded domestic equities worth Rs 48,213 crore in April so far, extending their selling trend in the Indian markets. They have sold shares worth Rs 1,79,335 crore on a year-to-date basis.
On Friday, FIIs bought domestic shares at Rs 672.09 crore while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers at Rs 410.05 crore helping markets end the day with strong gains after a Thursday pause.
6. Technical triggers
Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President – Research at Religare Broking said the index has witnessed a swift recovery and has retraced nearly four weeks of losses, indicating potential for further upside towards the 24,300–24,700 zone. “A moderation in the volatility index, India VIX, now around 19, is adding to investor comfort. Traders should maintain a positive yet cautious stance, with the index needing to hold decisively above the key level of 23,500 (20 DEMA),” Mishra said.
7. Rupee Vs dollar
Rupee movement against the US dollar will be closely tracked.
The currency ended marginally lower for the day after a choppy session that saw it touch a three-week peak of 92.4150 per dollar before slipping to 92.7550 during the day. It ended 0.1% lower than its previous close, gaining 0.4% this week.
In recent sessions, the rupee has drawn support from the Reserve Bank of India’s move to impose limits on banks’ onshore FX net open positions, which forced lenders to sell dollars in the local market.
Oil prices dropped after the U.S. and Iran agreed on a two-week truce earlier in the week, easing some concerns about prolonged disruptions to the world’s crude oil supply.
The impact of both these developments is now baked into the current prices, traders said, and the rupee may soon resume its downward trend.
“The cushion that held the rupee steady is beginning to thin, and this is where the story starts to shift,” said Amit Pabari, managing director at FX advisory firm CR Forex.
“Just as domestic support begins to fade, the global backdrop is turning uneasy again.”
The scope for further strength seems limited, with a gradual move towards 93.50–94.00 levels likely on the cards, he added.
8. IPO watch
The primary markets will see some action as one mainboard and one SME IPO will open for bidding.
The book building issue of Citius Transnet InvIT IPO will open on Friday, April 17 where the company plans to raise Rs 1,340 crores. The issue is entirely a fresh issue and the price band will be announced later.
Mehul Telecom SME will also be launched on Friday. It is also a book build issue of Rs 27.73 crores. The issue is entirely a fresh issue of 28 lakh shares.
Meanwhile bidding in Om Power Transmission and Property Share Investment Trust-Propshare Celestia SM REIT will close next week.
There will be three listings in the coming week. Om Power Transmission stock will be listed on Friday while stocks of SME companies Emiac Technologies and Safety Controls & Devices will also make their market debuts.
9. Corporate action
Investors can expect stock specific trends during the week as a clutch of companies will have corporate actions line-up. These include a buyback, dividend, stock split, and spin-off event.
Aurobindo Pharma Limited and Muthoot Finance Limited will turn ex-date for buyback and dividend, respectively, while Pashupati Cotspin Limited and Prima Plastics Limited will see action around a stock split and demerger.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)