Infosys shares tumble 6% after Q4 results. What Morgan Stanley, other top brokerages are saying


Shares of IT major Infosys slumped over 6% to their day’s low of Rs 1,163 on the NSE on Friday after it reported a 21% year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, at Rs 8,501 crore, compared with Rs 7,033 crore in the same period last year. Infosys ADRs also witnessed a decline, ending 4% lower.

Revenue from operations came in at Rs 46,402 crore for Q4FY26, reflecting a 13.4% increase from Rs 40,925 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year. On a sequential basis, profit after tax rose 28% from Rs 6,654 crore reported in Q3FY26. Revenue was up 2% quarter-on-quarter compared to Rs 45,479 crore in the October-December quarter.

Read More: Infosys Q4 Results: Cons profit jumps 21% YoY to Rs 8,501 cr, revenue rises 13%; Rs 25/share dividend declared

Operating margin for the reported quarter stood at 21%, unchanged year-on-year but higher by 260 basis points compared to the previous quarter. The company’s dollar revenue was $5,040 million, up 6.6% sequentially but down 1.2% year-on-year.

For FY27, Infosys has guided for revenue growth of 1.5% to 3.5% in constant currency, while maintaining an operating margin outlook of 20% to 22%.

Here’s what experts are saying:

1) Jefferies

The global brokerage firm has maintained a Hold rating on Infosys shares and cut its target price to Rs 1,235, indicating limited upside or downside from current levels. The brokerage said the company’s March quarter results were broadly in line with estimates, but the weaker-than-expected FY27 revenue growth guidance of 1.5% to 3.5% disappointed. It also pointed to a 3% quarter-on-quarter decline in headcount and a 19% year-on-year drop in net new deal wins as key concerns.

Jefferies noted that the lower end of the guidance range reflects a worsening macro environment and continued geopolitical uncertainty, while the upper end assumes some improvement. Net new deal wins for Q4 stood at $1.3 billion, down 19% YoY, which the brokerage said was soft. This, along with the sharp reduction in headcount during the quarter, aligns with the company’s cautious growth outlook.

2) Morgan Stanley

The Wall Street major has maintained an Equal-weight rating on Infosys share price, while cutting its target price to Rs 1,380 from Rs 1,760 earlier, an upside of 11% from current levels. The brokerage highlighted a miss in Q4 across key metrics, along with a weak revenue growth outlook. It noted that the FY27 revenue guidance of 1.5% to 3.5% points to a lack of meaningful acceleration, with organic growth expected at around 2.5%, broadly in line with peers.

IT also flagged that the ramp-down of a large European client is weighing on the near-term growth outlook. It added that AI-led productivity gains and pricing pressure are impacting the competitiveness of the core business. Margins are expected to remain in the range of 20.5% to 21.0%, with headwinds from wage hikes and M&A activity.

While estimates have been lowered, Morgan Stanley said earnings per share could see some support from currency tailwinds. It also noted that valuations are now correcting closer to peer levels, which may offer some downside protection, with the stock valued at around 15.8 times price-to-earnings.

3) Motilal Oswal

The domestic brokerage firm has maintained a Buy rating on Infosys shares with an unchanged target price of Rs 1,450, implying a 17% upside from current levels. The brokerage said the company’s FY27 revenue growth guidance of 1.5% to 3.5% in constant currency, or 1.25% to 3.25% organic, is below its estimates at the upper end and signals rising pressure on the existing book of business. It noted that the increasing adoption of AI is leading to compression in the core business, as productivity gains are being passed on to clients. While part of this trend is also due to competitive intensity and pricing pressures in a weak demand environment, the brokerage expects deflationary impact to persist.

Motilal Oswal has factored in growth at the mid-point of the guidance at around 2.5% organic for FY27, which indicates a slowdown compared to FY26 growth of 3.1% in constant currency terms.

4) HDFC Securities

It has maintained a Buy rating on Infosys stock price with an unchanged target price of Rs 1,550. The brokerage noted that Q4 revenue was impacted by seasonal factors and slower client decision-making. It added that the company’s FY27 revenue growth guidance of 1.5% to 3.5% year-on-year came in below expectations, reflecting ongoing macro uncertainty. The demand environment continues to remain soft, with clients prioritising cost optimisation over large-scale transformation initiatives. Given the slower growth outlook, estimates have been trimmed by around 2% to 3%, with the stock valued at 18 times its March 2028 estimated earnings per share.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)



Source link

Leave a Reply

Back To Top