In a report, HSBC analysts led by Yogesh Aggarwal said that while they maintain a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 300, near-term volatility may persist as the company navigates an increasingly crowded market. Eternal shares were trading about 3% lower at Rs 247.7 on the BSE on Tuesday.
Blinkit’s premium pricing under pressure
The brokerage noted that “Blinkit still hasn’t reacted to aggressive competition and continues to be 6-9% more expensive than other platforms,” including Amazon Now, Flipkart, DMart Ready, and Zepto. While this premium pricing has supported margins in the near term, HSBC warned that the acceptable level of market share loss remains unclear.
Based on SKU-level comparisons, prices on Blinkit and Swiggy Instamart remain 6–9% higher than peers. The report also noted a modest 2–3% price increase across platforms and a slight uptick in minimum order value (MOV) requirements since March 2026.
Rising competition intensifies pressure
“Seven is a headache,” HSBC said, highlighting that the quick commerce space now has seven focused players, intensifying competitive pressures. Amazon Now is investing $300 million to scale to 100 cities with 1,000 dark stores, while Flipkart plans to expand its network to 1,200 dark stores across 250 cities by June 2026.
JioMart reported around 30% quarter-on-quarter and 300% year-on-year growth in daily orders in 4QFY26, though comparisons remain difficult.
Despite maintaining over 40% market share by net order value and leading in profitability, Blinkit has seen some recent loss of share. HSBC expects 50% NOV growth for Blinkit in FY27, below consensus estimates of around 70%.
Long-term value intact, but path uneven
HSBC continues to see strong long-term value in Eternal, forecasting $1.1 billion EBITDA (food delivery plus quick commerce) by FY30. At a 30x EV/EBITDA multiple, the company could be valued at $33 billion, rising to $40 billion including cash and other businesses, implying 40–50% upside.
“We think that’s attractive and likely to outperform the broader market. However, it is unlikely to be a linear compounding journey,” the brokerage said.
HSBC retained its 35x EV/EBITDA multiple, valuing Eternal’s food delivery business at around Rs 1.1 lakh crore and Blinkit at about Rs 1.5 trillion (discounted to FY28), with other segments and cash at roughly Rs 34,800 crore.
“Blinkit remains a key long-term player in quick commerce, but over the next 12-18 months it may face pressure on market share,” HSBC added, citing sustained competition from well-capitalised players like Swiggy Instamart and Zepto.