With three playoff spots already locked in by RCB, GT and SRH, the battle for the last remaining berth has narrowed to five teams. Rajasthan Royals are best placed, Punjab Kings still control much of their own destiny, while Kolkata Knight Riders, Delhi Capitals and Chennai Super Kings need both victories and outside help.With only seven league games remaining, every result now directly shifts the equation for someone else.

Rajasthan Royals: One win could be enough, but two seals it

RR remain in the strongest position among the chasing pack simply because they still have two matches left and are already on 12 points. Wins against Lucknow Super Giants and Mumbai Indians would take them to 16 points, a tally that almost certainly guarantees qualification irrespective of other results.The bigger question is whether one win from two could still be enough. If RR beat LSG in Jaipur, they move to 14 and immediately place pressure on PBKS, KKR, DC and CSK, none of whom can comfortably afford another defeat.In that scenario, RR would want:

The ideal RR scenario is that they claim two wins and reach 16 points, thus eliminating every other team in contention, regardless of their resultsThe concern for Rajasthan is momentum. They have lost four of their last five matches and their NRR of 0.027 offers little cushion if multiple teams finish on 14 points. A heavy defeat in either remaining game could drag them into dangerous territory.

Punjab Kings: Beat LSG and hope the chaos behind them continues

PBKS sit on 13 points from 13 games, which makes their equation deceptively simple: beat LSG in Lucknow and they move to 15 points.That number could well be enough because none of KKR, DC or CSK can get beyond 15. But PBKS are vulnerable if RR manage two wins in their remaining two games. Also, because of both form and scheduling, PBKS are treading a fine line. They have lost five straight games and will play after several direct rivals have already completed their fixtures.The best-case scenario for PBKS:

A defeat to LSG, however, almost certainly ends PBKS’ campaign. They would stay on 13, a tally RR and CSK can surpass with one win, and KKR can cross with two victories.

Chennai Super Kings: Hanging by mathematics more than momentum

CSK’s defeat to SRH has left them needing the most improbable combination of results among the teams still mathematically alive.They are on 12 points from 13 matches and can only reach 14 with a win against GT in Ahmedabad.But 14 alone is unlikely to be enough unless almost everything else breaks in their favour.For CSK to have a genuine chance, they need:

That is a narrow path already, and even then net run rate could complicate matters. CSK’s NRR of -0.016 is better than DC’s and marginally better than KKR’s, but not strong enough to feel comfortable if multiple teams finish on 14.The biggest problem for CSK is that they no longer fully control the ceiling of rival teams. RR can still get to 16, PBKS to 15 and KKR to 15.

Kolkata Knight Riders: Two wins or nothing

KKR are the only other team apart from RR among the chasing group with two remaining games. Sitting on 11 points from 12 games, they simply cannot afford a defeat.Wins against Mumbai Indians and Delhi Capitals would take KKR to 15 points. Anything less leaves them eliminated.But even two wins may not fully settle matters. KKR’s qualification chances are heavily tied to what RR and PBKS do.The ideal KKR scenario looks like this:

If all of that happens, KKR finish on 15 and likely grab the fourth spot outright.There’s also a scenario where KKR finish tied on 15 with PBKS. In that case, net run rate decides the final position. KKR’s current NRR of -0.038 means they cannot merely scrape through victories; margins could matter.What helps KKR is momentum. Unlike the others around them, they have won four of their last five games and suddenly look like the side peaking at the right time.

Delhi Capitals: Beat KKR and pray for collapses elsewhere

DC’s equation is the toughest among the realistic contenders because they have only one match left and an inferior net run rate.At 12 points from 13 games, even a win over KKR only takes them to 14. That means Delhi cannot qualify on their own terms.For DC to qualify, they need:

But even then, NRR could become a major factor. DC’s current NRR of -0.871 is comfortably the weakest among all contenders. If qualification comes down to a tie on points, Delhi are almost certainly disadvantaged.Ironically, DC may still have a huge role in deciding the playoff race even if they do not qualify. A win over KKR knocks Kolkata out and potentially opens the door for RR or PBKS. A defeat, meanwhile, could directly send KKR through.