In a recent initiating note, Antique Stock Broking said Adani Power was entering a “multi-year earnings upcycle,” underpinned by a planned 2.3x expansion in capacity from 18.15 GW in FY25 to 41.9 GW by FY33E and a transition from a stressed thermal independent power producer to what it described as India’s most efficient private baseload operator.
Antique pointed to India’s structural power demand upcycle, supported by an estimated 6% demand CAGR over FY22–32E, driven by electric vehicles, data centres, artificial intelligence workloads and manufacturing growth. The brokerage said this environment continued to support the role of coal-based generation in meeting peak and non-solar demand.
PPAs strengthen revenue and cash-flow visibility
Antique said Adani Power has secured a 70% share of ongoing state-led thermal PPA awards, winning 12.4 GW out of 17.7 GW awarded so far, reflecting what it described as the company’s cost and execution advantages. It added that 90% of operational capacity and 67% of the 41.9 GW portfolio is already tied up under long-term PPAs or letters of intent.
The brokerage said new PPAs carry higher fixed charges than legacy contracts, improving fixed-cost recovery and earnings predictability. Fuel security is supported by SHAKTI-linked fuel supply agreements, while captive coal output is expected to support a portion of merchant capacity.
Morgan Stanley lifts forecasts, trims merchant exposureSeparately, Morgan Stanley said Adani Power has won PPAs and letters of award for about 6.7 GW over the past three months, taking the PPA bid pipeline to around 22 GW. The brokerage said it had lowered its estimate of merchant capacity exposure, reflecting stronger earnings visibility.
“Earning visibility remains strong,” Morgan Stanley said, reiterating its Overweight rating and forecasting an EBITDA CAGR of 20% over FY25–33, higher than its earlier estimate.
Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the stock to Rs 185 from Rs 163.6, citing higher earnings estimates after recent PPAs and operational performance, while keeping its valuation methodology unchanged.
Expansion, balance sheet underpin outlook
Antique said Adani Power is executing the largest private-sector thermal expansion in India, with 23.72 GW under construction, taking total capacity to 41.9 GW by FY33E. The brokerage highlighted a brownfield-led expansion strategy that lowers capital intensity and execution timelines compared with public-sector peers.
It added that around 60% of the company’s Rs 2,000 billion capex pipeline is expected to be funded through internal accruals, supporting deleveraging, with net debt to EBITDA projected to fall below 1x by FY32E.
Both brokerages said coal-fired generation is expected to remain central to India’s grid stability and peak-hour reliability over the coming decade, positioning Adani Power as a key beneficiary of tightening baseload requirements.
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