Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain highly volatile and event-driven, with near-term direction largely contingent on developments in the Middle East, particularly the evolving situation around the Strait of Hormuz. Any prolonged disruption could keep crude prices elevated above the $100 mark, intensifying inflationary and current account pressures while sustaining a risk-off sentiment.
Here are 5 factors that could steer market action on April 6
1) Iran’s deal deadline nears
The conflict between Iran and the US-Israel alliance continues to escalate, with leaders on all sides warning that the situation could worsen further. As Iran approaches US President Donald Trump’s April 6 deadline for a peace deal, Trump on Saturday warned the Islamic Republic that “all hell will break loose” within 48 hours if Tehran fails to meet his demands, including reopening the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump said, “Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT. Time is running out– 48 hours before all hell will reign down on them. Glory be to GOD!”
2) Crude oil hovers at $110
Oil prices have witnessed a sharp surge in 2026, with Brent crude recording an extraordinary 56% monthly gain—its strongest rally on record, amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The global oil market has remained under significant pressure, as Donald Trump signalled the possibility of intensified military action, driving crude prices toward multi-year highs. Brent crude briefly crossed $109 before easing to around $106, while WTI crude climbed above $111, reflecting tightening supply concerns and a rising geopolitical risk premium.
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Markets have been rattled as the escalating conflict in the Middle East has disrupted shipping and energy exports through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. This narrow chokepoint between Iran and Oman typically carries around one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. In practical terms, oil equivalent to nearly 20% of global demand passes through the strait every day.
3) FII exodus continues
March witnessed massive selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to the tune of Rs 1.22 lakh crore, marking the highest-ever monthly outflow. This record selling was driven by a confluence of factors, including the ongoing conflict, a sharp spike in crude oil prices above the $100 mark, the steady depreciation of the rupee, and a strengthening US dollar.Sustained FPI selling has, however, corrected Indian market valuations, making them fair and, in certain segments, even attractive. That said, a meaningful revival in FPI inflows will likely depend on a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions, which could lead to a moderation in crude oil prices.
4.) RBI curbs halting Rupee decline
The Indian rupee jumped sharply against the US dollar on Thursday, recording its steepest single-day rise in more than 12 years after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) extended curbs on offshore derivatives to protect the currency from its free fall. The rupee closed 1.8% higher at 93.10 against the US dollar, compared with the previous close of 94.83.
This came after the RBI on Wednesday barred banks from offering rupee non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) to resident and non-resident clients. Banks can still offer deliverable FX contracts for hedging, but users cannot offset those trades with positions taken offshore. The measures disrupted a $149 billion-a-day market and are being described by analysts as among the toughest in over a decade.
5) Weak technical set up
The Nifty is currently stabilising near the 22,700 zone, but the overall structure still reflects a corrective bias. The market is holding, but not showing strong momentum. A breakdown below 22,300 could accelerate selling pressure and push the index towards the 22,000–21,800 zone, a crucial support area.
On the upside, 22,800–23,000 remains an immediate resistance band, followed by a stronger supply zone at 23,200–23,500. Only a sustained move above these levels would indicate a meaningful recovery. Momentum indicators continue to remain weak, signalling a lack of strength in the current move.
The Sensex is stabilising near the 73,300 zone after recent volatility, but the overall structure remains fragile. Immediate resistance is placed in the 73,800-74,000 range, while a sustained move above 75,000 is required to meaningfully improve sentiment.
On the downside, a break below 72,000 could extend the correction towards the 71,500–71,000 zone. While selective buying may emerge at lower levels, strong conviction remains absent.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)