The October crude oil futures were trading at Rs 5,669 per BBL, rising by Rs 37 or 0.66% on the MCX.
In international markets, US WTI crude hovered around $63.65, gaining $0.24 or 0.38%, while Brent crude traded around $67.90, up $0.27 or 0.40%.
Commenting on current trends, Naveen Mathur, Director – Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, said geopolitical tensions continue to dominate crude oil sentiment.
“Ukraine’s drone strikes targeted Russian refineries, pumping stations, and the Samara blending facility, threatening export flows. Meanwhile, Trump renewed calls for Europe to halt Russian oil purchases, and the EU prepared new sanctions targeting Russian oil trade through third countries, including entities in China and India. This week, renewed escalation and sanction threats have lifted crude nearly 1%, with markets pricing in tighter supply risks despite oversupply concerns,” Mathur said.
Last week, crude ended nearly 1% lower, with WTI settling at $62.68, now hovering near $63 per BBL. Prices were weighed down by robust supply, rising OPEC output, and steady Russian exports, offsetting support from the Fed’s 25 bps rate cut. Weak US jobs and housing data, refinery maintenance turnarounds, and a surprise 4-million-barrel build in distillates further pressured the demand outlook.On the supply side, OPEC production rose to 35.9 mbpd in August, its highest since April 2023 and well above quota, with supply unwinding expected to add another 1.6 mbpd by September 2026.“Crude has rebounded in early sessions, supported by heightened geopolitical risks from Ukraine’s strikes and the EU’s tightening of sanctions on Russia. This has put a floor under prices. However, rising OPEC supply, resilient Russian exports, and softening global demand could cap gains later in the week. Overall, crude may stay supported near-term by geopolitics but faces downward pressure if supply continues to outpace demand,” Mathur added.
Technical view
A downward-sloping triangle pattern is forming in MCX crude oil contracts, with resistance marked by a descending trendline from July highs, Mathur said. The price is currently trading near support levels around Rs 5,579–5,429, with resistance near Rs 5,729.
“The Bollinger Bands show moderate contraction, indicating potential for a price breakout likely following the triangle pattern. The MACD histogram shows a mix of weakening bullish and bearish momentum, with no strong directional bias yet,” the Anand Rathi analyst said.
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Mathur noted that MCX crude oil is consolidating within a bearish triangle pattern. A breakout above the descending trendline near Rs 5,729 could signal a bullish reversal, while a breakdown below support near Rs 5,429 could renew the downtrend.
Momentum indicators and Bollinger Bands suggest low volatility but potential for a near-term directional move as the triangle apex approaches. Key support levels are at Rs 5,429–5,377, while resistance lies at Rs 5,729–5,850.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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