Export uncertainty may dull domestic momentum for solar companies

ET Intelligence Group: The imposition of countervailing duty (CVD) by the US Department of Commerce on solar modules from India is set to impact not just exporters but also companies focusing on the domestic market. With the viability of US-bound shipments now uncertain due to a CVD of 125.87%, exporters are likely to redirect unsold inventory to the Indian market. According to analysts, this may bring down module prices and affect realisations.

“Companies with minimal or no exports to the US will also be impacted by CVD. They face indirect risk, if export volumes from peers are redirected to India. Increased domestic supply could pressure module realisations,” Sweta Jain, research analyst, Anand Rathi Institutional Equities told ET. Indian exports may also look at other alternative markets in Africa or the Middle East and North Africa region, she added.

Companies rely on the US due to higher realisations. Imposition of CVD will wipe out the price advantage that previously allowed Indian manufacturers to earn superior margins.

Waaree Energies tried to soothe investors’ nerves by saying the company’s exports will not be impacted by CVD. “The company has been progressively strengthening its US-based manufacturing footprint as part of its long-term strategy to support localized production,” Waaree Energies said in a statement communicated to stock exchanges on Wednesday. It has an aggregate US module manufacturing capacity of approximately 2.6 GW, which will be expanded to approximately 4.2 GW by the end of the current financial year. It had a total installed capacity of 23 GW at the end of December 2025.

The stock of Waaree Energies fell 10.5%, the sharpest among peers, to ₹2,709 on BSE. Shares of Vikram Solar and Premier Energies dropped 5.5% and 6.3%, respectively.

Additionally, companies catering to solar firms also took beating. Solex Energy, maker of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules and EPC services provider for solar projects, plunged 8% while Waaree Renewable Technologies fell 3% on Wednesday.

The CVD has also eroded the future revenue visibility of Indian manufacturers that view the US as a key market for diversification and higher-margin exports. Companies that plan to increase their US exposure, invest in export-oriented capacity, or secure long-term supply contracts will now find those strategies commercially unviable under the steep duty regime. Investors will keenly watch further developments and any fruitful negotiations with the US government resulting in partial or full roll back of duties would offer a major relief.