The first polls have closed in Texas, where voters are set to decide two hotly contested primaries for the Senate that could determine whether the state is in play in the general election.
Sen. John Cornyn faces strong headwinds in his bid for a fifth term, with state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt challenging him in the GOP primary. If no candidate wins a majority of the primary vote, the race heads to a runoff May 26.
And on the Democratic side, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are locked in a tough battle for the party’s Senate nomination. Democrats hope they can be competitive in the traditionally Republican state this fall as they face an uphill battle to net the four seats needed to flip control in the Senate.
It may take some time for votes to be counted in the Democratic race. A judge ruled Tuesday night to keep the polls in the Texas Democratic primary open for two hours longer than scheduled, until 9 p.m. local time, after voter confusion about polling locations. Because parties conduct Texas primaries, the order only applies to the Democratic primary.
Cornyn has argued that if Paxton is the nominee, he could put the Senate seat at risk, given his personal and professional controversies. Paxton was impeached over allegations of bribery and corruption in 2023; the state Senate acquitted him. And Paxton’s wife announced last year that she was divorcing him “on biblical grounds.”
Paxton has argued that he can energize President Donald Trump’s core base of supporters who have been less likely to turn out for the GOP in midterm elections.
Trump has remained neutral in the primary, saying he supports all three candidates. But he could take a side in a runoff, according to a person familiar with the White House’s thinking and strategy.
That person said Trump is likely to endorse Cornyn if he keeps the race close, as Cornyn is viewed as the low-risk, least-costly way to ensure a red seat stays in Republicans’ hands. But if Paxton pulls ahead by a sizable, double-digit margin, that could change Trump’s calculus, as he is unlikely to endorse someone he doesn’t think can win.
Trump won Texas by 14 points in the 2024 presidential race, more than doubling his 6-point margin in 2020 as he made gains across the country. But Democrats think the Senate race could be competitive in the November of a midterm election year that favors the party out of power, pointing to then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s coming within 3 points of defeating GOP Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018.
The prospect of a potentially competitive — and expensive — Senate race in November has caused GOP leaders to rally behind Cornyn. He and his allies have spent a combined $78.5 million on ads in the primary, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Paxton and his allied outside groups have spent $4.4 million, while Hunt and his allied super PACs have spent $12.2 million.
Lopsided ad spending has also been a feature of the Democratic primary, with Talarico and his allies looking to boost his name recognition in the sprawling state. Talarico has described himself as the “underdog” against Crockett, who entered the race in December with a national profile from her clashes with Trump and Republicans.
Talarico and an allied super PAC have spent a combined $25.3 million on ads, while Crockett and an outside group backing her have spent $5.3 million.
Largely aligned on policy, Talarico and Crockett have diverged over style and strategy as Democratic voters search for a fighter who could hand the party its first statewide win in more than 30 years.
Crockett, whose supporters describe her as a fearless fighter, has said she can build a multiracial and multigenerational coalition of new voters to win Texas. Talarico’s supporters say he is likelier to win statewide by appealing to voters across the political spectrum, pointing to his victory in a Republican state House seat, his populist message and his frequent discussion of his Christian faith.