Excerpts from a chat:
Nifty’s rally on Wednesday was followed up by another round of selling on Thursday before a surprise recovery changed the trajectory towards the session’s end. Does the market remain in a sell-on-rise mode? What are the cues for traders in April series?
Despite the forced downside gapped opening that dragged Nifty to a new recent low, the pull back from in the initial hour itself was sufficient to scare away the bears. Not only was a regrouping of bears averted, the sustained recovery helped reclaim the 23700 mark. This is short of our pivot of 23770, but we are encouraged by the fact that traders adopted a risk on approach ignoring a long weekend amidst conflicting signals from the war front. This raises our preparedness to play a 24400 move, should 23770 give away. Inability to do so will bring 21900 back into the radar, but such a collapse is less expected.
The fall in Nifty Bank was sharper as RBI tightened forex rules. How would you trade the index in the week ahead amid the RBI MPC meeting where the repo rate is unlikely to be changed?
Usually, after MPC outcomes where the RBI shifted from rate cuts to a status quo, Bank Nifty has shown limited reaction on the announcement day but positive follow‑through thereafter, with Bank Nifty clearly outperforming. On an average, Bank Nifty has responded more constructively, delivering around 1-1.5% and strong one‑month gains of ~7%. Overall, a status quo after cuts has historically been decisively bullish for Bank Nifty, especially over short to medium term.
Bank Nifty is showing early signs of short‑term stabilization after a sharp corrective phase. Price action suggests selling pressure is gradually reducing, with the index attempting to form a base near recent lows. Momentum indicators are showing signs of slowing downside momentum, indicating that a technical bounce is likely if support levels continue to hold. Any sustained move above the immediate resistance zone could trigger short‑covering and incremental buying, leading to a relief rally in the near term. While the broader trend remains cautious, the current structure favors a short‑term recovery. Also, index majors like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and SBI have formed weekly long legged dojis indicating potential near term reversal which could help Bank Nifty move towards 52500-53500 levels.
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Tata Motors CV was among the worst hit stocks in the holiday-shortened week. Do you see more selling pressure?
TMCV’s was disappointing, especially considering the fact that the broader market did stage a strong recovery on Thursday, and the stock failed to make much of the positivity around. And yet, the formation of a hammer, following a pullback from below the lower bollinger band encourages us to look for upswings, rather than fear of sellers regrouping again.
Avenue Supermarts shares saw sustained buying in 3 consecutive sessions. Does it look like the start of an uptrend here?
Consecutive days of uptrend despite overall market volatility is a positive sign. Beyond this, the successive close above the 200 day SMA, serves as a confirmation of positivity. This encourages us to view 4560, the inverted head and shoulder’s breakout objective as the target of such an upmove which may be played with a stop loss below 4000.
Give us your top trading ideas for the week.
MSTCLTD (CMP:407)
View: Buy
Target: 422 – 435
SL: 393
The stock is showing early signs of a positive reversal after forming a base near key support levels. Prices have stabilized above recent lows, accompanied by improving momentum on oscillators, suggesting selling pressure is easing. A sustained move above the immediate resistance zone could trigger fresh buying interest and pave the way for a gradual recovery toward the 422-435 target zone. The structure indicates a favorable risk-reward setup at current levels, as the downside appears limited while upside potential is opening up. As long as the stock holds above the defined stop-loss at 393, the bullish view remains intact. Traders can look for follow‑through buying on minor dips, with expectations of a measured upside move as sentiment improves and technical indicators continue to align positively.
EIHOTEL (CMP:288)
View: Buy
Target: 298 – 305
SL: 276
The stock has shown a clear sign of reversal with a strong weekly Hammer candle, indicating buying interest emerging near the lower levels. This price action suggests that downside momentum is weakening and bulls are beginning to regain control. Volumes and structure imply accumulation around the recent support zone, improving the probability of a short‑term recovery. As long as the price sustains above the immediate support, the setup favors a bounce toward the 298-305 zone, where supply may re‑emerge. The defined stop‑loss at 276 keeps risk well contained, offering an attractive risk-reward profile. Overall, the weekly Hammer at a support area signals a potential trend reversal, making the stock well‑positioned for an upward move in the coming sessions if follow‑through buying continues.