However, within a day of the verdict, Trump signalled that he would continue pursuing new tariffs. He invoked a temporary global tariff—first 10%, then raised to 15%, the maximum allowed under the US trade law.
Global response
The Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Trump’s earlier tariff framework prompted varied global reactions. The European Commission immediately rejected any increase in tariffs and said that existing agreements must be honoured. India postponed a planned trade visit to Washington to reassess the implications of the ruling, reflecting broader uncertainty among U.S. trading partners. This shifting tariff landscape may create instability in global trade flows, as businesses and governments reassess supply chains and tariff exposures. Existing trade deals face renewed strain: some partners may reconsider agreements struck at higher tariff rates, while others may challenge the legality or longevity of the new levies.
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Impact on the US dollar
The U.S. dollar showed a mixed response following the Supreme Court’s ruling against Trump’s earlier tariffs. It initially rose, reflecting a brief boost in confidence, but later fell, as investors reassessed the ruling’s implications and shifted toward safe-haven assets like gold and silver. Trump’s swift introduction of a 15% global tariff added fresh uncertainty, further pressuring the dollar as markets priced in potential trade disruptions and weaker economic sentiment.
Renewed interest in bullion
Gold and silver surged following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid sudden policy uncertainty. Gold futures jumped past $5,200, while silver rose nearly 9% on the day of the ruling. When Trump quickly responded with a new 15% global tariff, safe-haven demand strengthened further, supported by a weaker dollar and renewed trade concerns. Overall, both metals gained sharply as uncertainty over U.S. trade policy drove investors toward bullion.
Against this backdrop, bullion is likely to remain supported in the coming days. Periods of policy instability and fluctuating trade frameworks often weaken sentiment toward the U.S. dollar, prompting investors to shift towards assets perceived as more stable.
Impact on energy commodities
For energy commodities, the impact is likely to be felt through two key channels: currency volatility and trade-flow uncertainty. Any pressure on the U.S. dollar—caused by legal ambiguity, shifting tariff frameworks, or perceived political risk—tends to influence crude oil prices, since oil is globally priced in dollars. A weaker dollar typically supports higher energy prices, while a stronger one may exert downward pressure.
However, the shifting tariff landscape could indirectly influence global purchasing behaviour. If tariff related uncertainty disrupts trade flows or prompts buyers to diversify away from higher-tariff sources, Russian exporters may see changes in market dynamics. In this backdrop, countries like India—already a major buyer of discounted Russian crude, could further lean towards Russian supplies as a cost-effective alternative, especially if U.S. tariff actions make other import routes more expensive or less predictable.
Renewed volatility in base metals
For base metals such as copper and aluminium, the near-term outlook is likely to be shaped by dynamics like policy instability, currency fluctuations, and shifting supply-chain expectations. Copper, closely tied to global manufacturing and investment sentiment, tends to react sharply to uncertainty in trade policy. If tariff-driven instability pressures the U.S. dollar or clouds the outlook for industrial demand, copper may experience renewed volatility as markets reassess consumption prospects.
Aluminium, meanwhile, remains highly sensitive to trade flows and cost structures. Any tariff-related disruption to cross-border metal movement, or shifts in demand from sectors like autos and construction, could temper price gains and keep volatility elevated. Overall, with tariff pathways still unsettled and markets awaiting clarity, base metals are poised for cautious, choppy trading in the days ahead.
This shifting trade landscape has already generated “huge uncertainty” for companies and U.S. trading partners, heightening concerns over rising costs, supply-chain realignments, and the resilience of existing trade agreements. Ultimately, the Supreme Court ruling has not concluded the debate over U.S. tariff policy; it has opened a new and unpredictable chapter. With the administration pursuing alternative legal pathways, such as the newly imposed 15% global tariff, the long-term direction of U.S. trade strategy remains unclear. Until greater clarity emerges, commodity markets are likely to remain on uneven footing, shaped by caution, exchange-rate fluctuations, and evolving global policy risks.
(The author Hareesh V is Head of Commodity Research, Geojit Investments)
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)