Brokerages remain divided on the extent of net profit moderation. While Emkay Research remains most optimistic among its peers, pegging the decline at 4%, Nuvama Institutional Equities, YES Securities and Elara Capital see a double-digit decline. The bottom line range is 17,190 crore to Rs 19,430 crore, the estimates revealed.
The lender is expected to see a sequential growth of 2.7%-4% in Q3 at Rs 44,162 crore to Rs 44,599 crore.
India’s largest lender will announce its October-December quarter earnings on Saturday, February 7 and SBI’s asset quality trends and margin commentary will be key monitorables.
Here’s what estimates say on these 5 key metrics:
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PAT
Nuvama expects a PAT of Rs 17,190 crore, up 2% YoY but down 15% QoQ, led by higher provisions.YES Securities pegs PAT at Rs 17,209 crore, mirroring a 2% YoY rise and 15% QoQ decline.
Emkay Research is relatively more optimistic, forecasting PAT of Rs 19,430 crore, up 15% YoY but down 4% QoQ, noting the absence of one-off gains from Yes Bank stake sale.
Elara Capital estimates PAT at Rs 17,853 crore, up 6% YoY and down 11% QoQ.
NII
Nuvama estimates NII at Rs 44,270 crore, up 7% YoY and 3% QoQ.
YES Securities expects slightly stronger NII at Rs 44,536 crore, up 7% YoY and 4% QoQ.
Emkay Research pegs NII at Rs 44,162 crore, up 7% YoY and 2.7% QoQ.
Elara Capital forecasts NII of Rs 44,599 crore, reflecting 8% YoY and 4% QoQ growth.
3) Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPoP)
Nuvama sees PPoP at Rs 27,640 crore, up 17% YoY but down 13% QoQ.
YES Securities estimates PPoP of Rs 27,350 crore, up 16% YoY and flat sequentially.
Emkay Research expects stronger operating performance with PPoP at Rs 29,756 crore, up 26% YoY and 9% QoQ.
Elara Capital pegs PPoP at Rs 28,367 crore, up 20% YoY and down 11% QoQ.
4) Net Interest Margins (NIMs)
Nuvama expects NIMs at 2.95%, down 6 bps YoY and 2 bps QoQ.
YES Securities anticipates sequential margin pressure as yields on advances decline faster than deposit costs.
Emkay Research forecasts NIMs at around 3%, down 6 bps YoY and 2 bps QoQ.
5) Loan & deposits
Nuvama estimates advances at Rs 45.58 lakh crore, up 14% YoY and 4.5% QoQ, while deposits are seen at Rs 57.59 lakh crore, up 10% YoY and 3% QoQ.
YES Securities expects sequential loan growth of around 3.5%, citing SBI’s idiosyncratic growth trajectory, with fee income growth outpacing loan growth.
Emkay Research believes overall growth remains strong, supporting operating metrics.
6) Slippages & provisions
Nuvama expects slippages at Rs 4,200 crore, up 1.3% YoY but down 16% QoQ, while provisions are seen at Rs 4,510 crore, up sharply YoY but down 17% QoQ.
YES Securities expects lower sequential slippages due to seasonality and moderation in provisions following higher provisioning in Q2.
Emkay Research flags a possible sequential uptick in slippages due to seasonal agricultural stress.
Elara Capital also expects provisions to remain elevated but lower on a sequential basis.
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)