Gold buying in India is not just about its safe haven status – it is traditionally considered auspicious. Festivals across the year become major days on which gold buying peaks. According to Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, the returns over the last few years indicate that both physical gold and MCX gold have remained structurally bullish, especially during periods of global uncertainty, inflation spikes, and currency volatility.Gold and silver prices have rallied strongly in the last few years, reaching new peaks in January this year. However, since then prices of both the precious metals have come down. More recently, the safe haven status of gold came under question with prices crashing since the start of the US-Iran war. According to a recent report by Motilal Oswal Wealth Management, from a historical perspective, Akshaya Tritiya has consistently proven to be a favourable entry point for long-term gold investors. Gold and silver have marked gains of around 10% and 5% year-to-date. Respectively. Gold prices have dropped from their recent highs, but are still on the higher side. In this context, should you buy gold this Akshaya Tritiya? We asked five experts – but before that let’s take a look at how gold has fared compared to other asset classes like silver and equities in the last 10 years.
Akshaya Tritiya to Akshaya Tritiya: How Gold, Silver, Sensex Returns Compare
Experts note that silver has outperformed gold & Indian equities since last Akshaya Tritiya. It has delivered stellar, multibagger returns of around 158–160 % since the last Akshaya Tritiya (April 30, 2025), significantly outperforming gold’s roughly 60% gain. Silver prices have surged from just below Rs 1 lakh per kg during last Akshaya Tritiya to around Rs 2.50 lakh per kg by mid-April 2026, driven by high industrial demand and investment inflows. Not only that, the white metal was seen rising to a high of over Rs 4.25 lakh per kg in futures contract during the first month of the current year!
On the other hand, stock markets have bled in the last year due to foreign outflows, rupee depreciation and a host of other factors. BSE Sensex lower since last Akshaya Tritiya close. The long-term data reveals a more telling tale. Over the last 10 years, gold has consistently delivered positive returns from one Akshaya Tritiya to another, with 2017 being an exception with negative returns. On an average, over the last 10 years gold has given around 19% returns, while Sensex has delivered 13%, and silver 27%.
However, it is also noteworthy to see that there are several periods of single digit returns, and others of exceptional performance, like last year, which raise the average. On the other hand, Sensex has delivered more consistent returns.What should your investment decision on Akshaya Tritiya look like? Here’s what 5 experts say:Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock BrokersLooking ahead, the outlook for gold this Akshaya Tritiya remains positive, but investors should approach it with a long-term and balanced mindset rather than expecting quick gains. This is because gold is currently facing resistance from a few factors.Disruptions to energy supplies are likely to persist beyond the ongoing conflict, keeping inflation risks elevated. This could push central banks toward tighter monetary policy, leading to higher bond yields, which in turn reduces the appeal of gold, as it does not offer any interest income. At the same time, some key support factors for gold may weaken in the near term. Although central banks—especially the People’s Bank of China have been strong buyers, purchases typically slow in the second quarter. Over the past 20 years, spot gold has risen by an average of 1.2% in Q2, compared to 5.2%, 2.9%, and 2.5% in Q1, Q3, and Q4, respectively. While several global banks remain positive on gold over the long term, near-term gains may remain capped.That said, the broader structural drivers supporting gold, such as central bank buying, global uncertainties, and concerns around inflation and currency stability remain firmly in place. Over the next year, gold prices are expected to stay strong but with significant volatility. Akshaya Tritiya presents a good opportunity to gradually start accumulating gold as part of a long-term strategy but it is advisable to accumulate the same in 3-4 tranches on every dip of 3-4%.MCX gold has the potential to rise by 18–20% till the next Akshay Tritiya (CMP: Rs 153,100 per 10 gm). On the downside, prices may find a floor around ₹1,30,000, while ₹1,65,000 acts as an immediate resistance level. A sustained move above this could open the path toward ₹1,85,000. Internationally, COMEX gold is expected to trade in the range of $4,000 to $5,750 per ounce.
Praveen Singh, Head of Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan
- Just eight weeks ago, markets were pricing in more than two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. However, the escalation of the Iran conflict has upended this narrative. A sharp surge in crude oil and fuel prices has reignited inflationary pressures, pushing inflation expectations higher. Central banks have consequently turned more vigilant, with even the Bank of England and the European Central Bank now being perceived as potential rate hikers – a sharp U-turn from the ratecut expectations prevailing only a few weeks ago.
- A stronger US dollar and tighter liquidity conditions amid elevated oil prices have also prompted some sovereign gold selling and swap activity. Meanwhile, US labour market data remains resilient. This data should alleviate the Federal Reserve’s concerns about labour market weakness, at least in the near term.
- Gold may experience periods of volatility and further short-term corrections, as central banks remain focused on containing inflation stemming from Middle East tensions that have pushed physical crude oil prices to record highs. However, the medium-to-long term outlook for gold remains constructive over 2026–27, as structural fundamentals continue to provide strong support.
- Ongoing de-dollarization driven by geopolitical friction and sanctions, the burden of global sovereign debt estimated at around $340 trillion, and the growing vulnerability of government bonds under fiscal dominance and inflation risk are powerful tailwinds for both gold and silver. Over time, sustained high oil prices are likely to slow global economic growth, which could ultimately revive ratecut expectations. Any growth slowdown or recession would further deteriorate debt-to-GDP ratios, reinforcing the strategic appeal of precious metals.
- Overall, the outlook for gold remains strongly constructive, with prices expected to move toward the $6,000–$6,500 range over the next year, supported by macro uncertainty, fiscal stress, and structural shifts in the global monetary system.
Maneesh Sharma, Commodity & Currency ExpertGold short-term outlook: The decline in gold prices since the onset of geopolitics between US–Iran, was seen as a temporary response to a liquidity shock as central bank buying was seen slowing down in Feb–March period. Gold & Silver ETFs in India also witnessed outflows in Feb-Mar period weighing on sentiments for precious metals. Meanwhile, a strong fundamental backdrop still persists for the yellow metal in the coming years driven by macroeconomic uncertainties. For the coming months though, the gold outlook remains highly sensitive to shifts in US Federal interest rate policy outlook amid developments around the US–Iran conflict. Any rallies in global equities could again keep upside limited in the near term.Historically during May–June period, gold has delivered seasonally weak performance on an average in the last 50 years timeframe, often marking a consolidation period following spring peaks. However, the latter half of the year is still expected to remain positive given concerns of a slowdown in economic growth as projected by the IMF in its latest world economic outlook released in the current week. Should you buy it? What’s the outlook? One should consider investing in gold & silver in a portfolio of assets with the investment mix remaining at around 60:40 with 40% being allocated to silver. However investing fresh into gold requires a staggered approach starting this Akshaya Tritiya as dips of 5-10% in prices in the coming months should be seen as an opportunity to accumulate the yellow metal. Overall returns of 18– 25% in gold can still be expected till next Akshaya Tritiya.Silver, having outperformed gold since last Akshaya Tritiya, is still seen as a metal with higher potential for returns but with considerable volatility as the silver market is heading for a sixth year of structural deficit in 2026.
Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP SecuritiesBuying gold on Akshaya Tritiya carries both cultural significance and financial logic, especially for long-term wealth protection. However, current price levels are elevated after a sharp rally. Hence, a staggered accumulation strategy is more prudent rather than aggressive lump-sum buying.1-Year Outlook & Strategy• Approach: Buy in small quantities (SIP / staggered buying)• Better Accumulation Zone: Near ₹1,30,000 (on corrections)• 1-Year Outlook: Positive bias supported by * Geopolitical uncertainty * Inflation risks * Central bank buying * Currency volatilityTarget Levels (1 Year)• Upside Target: ₹1,75,000 – ₹1,85,000Gold is expected to remain in a long-term uptrend, though interim volatility and corrections should be expected. Gold remains a core portfolio hedge, but at current elevated levels, investors should focus on disciplined accumulation rather than chasing prices, using dips as opportunities.
Kaveri More, Commodity Analyst, Commodity Technical Research at Choice BrokingYes, As the bullion market remains heavily influenced by macroeconomic uncertainty, global growth concerns, and central‑bank actions, with three key drivers standing out ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (Iran-US), China‑Taiwan, and the Russia‑Ukraine conflict, softening growth in Europe and parts of Asia, and shifting monetary‑policy expectations, especially from the US Federal Reserve.Given these dynamics, buying gold this Akshaya Tritiya still makes sense but not in a lump‑sum, at‑peak manner. A staggered, “buy‑on‑dips” strategy around key support zones better align with a one‑year horizon and reduces the risk of entering near record highs. Reasonable target bands over the next 12 months could be Rs 169000–180000 for, with support zone near Rs 146800—136300.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)