The key deadlines that could shape the future of the Iran war: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Andrea Mitchell examines the upcoming dates on the calendar that will play a big role in determining what comes next in Iran. Plus, Julie Tsirkin sits down for a wide-ranging interview with Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C.

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— Adam Wollner

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The key deadlines that could shape the future of the Iran war

Analysis by Andrea Mitchell

Signs now appear to be pointing toward President Donald Trump’s wanting an off-ramp from the war with Iran. Despite the Pentagon’s now sending a third aircraft carrier and thousands more troops to the region, a few approaching deadlines are possible clues.

While Iran’s negotiators always get a vote, few observers doubt that Trump loves the pomp and circumstance of a State Dinner. Trump is expecting King Charles III and Queen Camilla for dinner the week after next, and it would be more than a little awkward for the White House to host the royals while the U.S. is expanding a war against Iran so broadly unpopular in the United Kingdom.

In fact, Trump has been talking about the visit as another reason to justify his controversial ballroom. Talking to reporters in the Oval Office two weeks ago, he cited the potential indignity of having the British monarch step on soggy grass in the South Lawn instead of a marble floor.

“Water can go up to 3 to 4 inches over their shoes. It’s not a good feeling,” Trump said at the time. “King Charles, who’s a great guy, we don’t want him to sit in a pool of water.”

Asked today by London-based Sky News whether he thinks he will have a deal to end the Iran war by the time the king arrives, Trump replied: “It’s possible. Very possible.”

There are also indications the U.S. and Iran may extend the two-week ceasefire negotiated last weekend in Pakistan. Asked today about reports of a two-week extension, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters it was not true “at this moment,” but she added, “We feel good about the prospects of a deal.” U.S officials are also talking about another negotiating session by the principals, as well as having technical experts meet in the interim to try to navigate such thorny issues as Iran’s nuclear stockpile and demands to control the Strait of Hormuz.

Another upcoming deadline is Trump’s trip to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14 and 15, already postponed once because of the war against Iran. Although China has long been viewed as a strong ally of Iran — depending heavily on its sanctioned oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz — Trump told Fox Business in an interview that aired today that Xi had assured him he was not supplying Iran with weapons — contrary to concerns expressed by Persian Gulf Arab countries.

“They have agreed not to send weapons to Iran,” Trump said. “President Xi will give me a big, fat hug when I get there in a few weeks.”

Finally, there is an economic imperative to wind the war down, and the administration has launched a new strategy this week: squeezing Iran through a partial blockade of the strait.

In addition to blocking most Iranian oil shipments, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters today that one of the “fatal mistakes that the Iranians made was bombing their neighbors, who are now willing to be much more transparent in terms of the funds or do a deeper dive in investigating the funds that are held within their banking systems.”

Iran was known to have deposited its sanctioned oil profits in Gulf financial institutions. According to Bessent, the U.S. is now threatening to freeze Iranian deposits from its military arm. He also warned China the U.S. could impose secondary sanctions on its banks holding Iranian funds.

While is it ramping up its military muscle in the region, the White House is now using its economic power, as well. That led Bessent to predict gas prices would return to $3 per gallon sometime from June to the end of September. In other words, before that other impending deadline — the November midterms.

➡️ Related: Senate Republicans again block Democratic effort to end Trump’s Iran war, by Sahil Kapur and Frank Thorp V

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For subscribers: In group chats and meetings, Republicans are privately petrified the Iran war could cost them the midterms

By Melanie Zanona, Bridget Bowman, Matt Dixon and Peter Nicholas

Few Republican lawmakers said anything publicly about Trump’s startling social media post last week warning Iran that “a whole civilization will die tonight,” but privately, in a large text chat, a group of them read his threat with alarm.

“People were pissed,” one of the House Republicans told NBC News.

Keep reading →

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Sen. Thom Tillis vows to keep blocking Trump’s Fed nominee

By Julie Tsirkin

In an interview with Fox Business, President Donald Trump suggested Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., who has occasionally broken with him, had “already quit” the Senate and wouldn’t be a factor in confirming his nominees.

But Tillis is still here. And as a member of the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, he’s exercising his ability to single-handedly block Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee to replace Jerome Powell as the head of the Federal Reserve.

In an extensive interview with NBC News, Tillis called Warsh “a perfect candidate,” but he maintained that he wouldn’t vote to confirm him until the Trump administration ends its federal criminal probe into Powell.

Warsh’s confirmation hearing to replace Powell is scheduled for next week, and he can’t be confirmed without Tillis’ vote as long as Democrats remain unified against Trump’s pick.

Tillis blasted the investigation, saying Powell did nothing wrong. He said he takes Trump at his word that he wasn’t involved in opening the investigation, despite Trump’s criticism of and threats to fire Powell, who has refused his pressure to cut interest rates. Instead, he suggested “somebody in DOJ” was going after Powell to “maybe garner favor from somebody in the White House.”

Powell has denied wrongdoing, and a federal judge last month blocked subpoenas in the probe, citing “essentially zero evidence.”

End the probe, he said, “and I will vote for Kevin Warsh simultaneously with the conclusion of that statement coming out of the DOJ, and not a day before, and not for the remaining … 264 days in my tenure in the U.S. Senate.”

Tillis shot back at critics: “Now, some people can say: ‘OK, Thom, you made your point. Jay Powell’s term expires as chair in May, so why not go ahead and fill it?’ Because I don’t want to reward bad behavior.”

Tillis, who is retiring at the end of the year, said he has lost his “filter” when he discusses everything from the war with Iran (he’s unclear “what the strategic objectives are”) to Trump’s AI-generated Jesus meme (he takes Trump at his word that he thought it portrayed him as a “doctor” and not the son of God).

“If I were running for re-election, I’d probably use a few different words, try to communicate the same thing, like I did in Trump one,” he said, referring to the president’s first term. “But I just don’t have to deal with that filter.”

Read more →

➡️ More for subscribers: Thom Tillis, speaking freely ahead of retirement, opens up about Trump’s Cabinet

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That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Owen Auston-Babcock.

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