284 million smartphones were produced globally in the first three months of 2026, a decline of 1.7% compared to the same period last year, reports TrendForce. The impact of increasing memory prices was minimal, but only because manufacturers had stockpiles of cheap memory available – those are gradually being exhausted.
For the full year 2026, the analysts’ prediction is dire – 1.051 billion units produced or 16.2% less than last year. And this is the good option as TrendForce notes: “the annual decline could become even more pronounced if memory price increases remain elevated and brands are forced to raise retail prices repeatedly.”
Different makers will be impacted differently – those that focus on premium devices with wider margins are better positioned to absorb the impact. Meanwhile, Chinese brands that had prioritized entry-level and mid-range devices will suffer.
Top smartphone producers in Q1 2026. Source: TrendForce
Samsung was the biggest smartphone maker in Q1 this year having produced 62.6 million units – this is 2.3% more than Q1 2025. This was thanks to ramping up production for the Galaxy S26 series launch. TrendForce says that Samsung has low-end models that are a concern (because of the thinner margins), but it has the financial support of the wider Samsung operation.
Apple was #2 with 60.2 million phones produced – an impressive 19.7% increase from Q1 2025, powered by strong demand for the iPhone 17e. Apple has great margins, so the analysts believe it will focus on expanding its market share during this difficult time for the overall smartphone market.
Completing the Top 5 are Oppo with 29.5 million units, Xiaomi with 26.0 million units and vivo with 22.0 million units. Transsion was just outside the Top 5 with 19.8 million phones produced in Q1. These companies were growing over the last few years, but the new component shortages will cut into their profitability.