When Indian equities last traded on Monday, they had already come under heavy pressure. The BSE Sensex had plunged over 2,700 points in early trade before recovering some ground to close 1,048 points lower at 80,238, down 1.29%. The Nifty ended near 24,850 after a volatile session. Investor wealth eroded by nearly Rs 6.6 lakh crore as risk aversion intensified.
The weakness in GIFT Nifty tracks a soft session on Wall Street. US stocks opened lower on Monday as the conflict in the Middle East widened and oil prices jumped. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7% to 48,661.35 in early trade, while the S&P 500 declined 0.5% to 6,845.44 and the Nasdaq slipped 0.4% to 22,575.52.
The Israeli military said it had launched a fresh broad strike on Tehran, while Gulf monarchies signalled possible retaliation, and tankers were attacked near Oman.
Higher crude prices are a key concern for India, which relies heavily on oil imports. Analysts say a sustained spike could fuel inflation, pressure the rupee and complicate the interest rate outlook.
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Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said Monday’s selloff reflected a pronounced risk-off move. Markets reacted to US and Israeli strikes on Iran and regional retaliation by shifting towards safer assets, he noted.
Also read: After a brutal Monday crash, Trump says Iran war may last four weeks. How will the stock market react on Wednesday?Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, said rising crude prices and a weakening rupee signal concerns about potential supply disruptions. He warned that higher oil prices could lift inflation, impact government finances and strain margins for sectors dependent on energy and chemicals. He added that the India VIX has moved higher, pointing to increased uncertainty, while foreign institutional investor selling has intensified.
From a technical standpoint, the market remains under pressure but appears oversold.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said benchmark indices are trading below key short-term and medium-term averages, with intraday charts showing a weak formation. However, he said a technical bounce cannot be ruled out, given the extent of recent losses.
Analysts see 24,750 on the Nifty and 80,000 on the Sensex as important support levels. As long as these levels hold, a pullback toward 25,000–25,075 on the Nifty is possible. A decisive break below 24,750, however, could open the door to 24,650-24,500.
Gaurav Udani, Founder of Thincredblu Securities, sees immediate resistance near 25,100 and support in the 24,550–24,600 band. He cautioned that a sustained breach of support could extend the downside, while reclaiming resistance is necessary for short-term stabilisation. Given the heightened geopolitical uncertainty, he advised traders to avoid aggressive leveraged positions.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)