The company is expected to swing back to year-on-year (YoY) profits while reporting sequential growth of about 6%. Revenue is seen to increase by up to 22% YoY and could fall in the range of Rs 2,187 crore to Rs 2,225 crore in the December-ended quarter, according to estimates from YES Securities and JM Financial.
The company will announce its earnings on Thursday, January 29.
Here’s what brokerages’ estimates say on 4 key parameters,
1) PAT
YES Securities expects a PAT of Rs 164 crore, compared with a loss in the year-ago period, reflecting a continued earnings turnaround.
Meanwhile, JM Financial has pegged the bottom line at Rs 224 crore, versus a YoY loss. It will likely go up 6% QoQ, indicating sustained profitability momentum. This brokerage noted that it expects Paytm to remain PAT-profitable for the quarter.
2) Revenue
YES Securities has projected revenue at Rs 2,187 crore, likely a 20% YoY and 6% QoQ increase. It assumes 6% QoQ growth in payments services revenue and 7.5% QoQ growth in financial services and others, resulting in overall 6% QoQ growth in revenue from operations.Payment Processing Charges (PPC) are expected to be 55% of payment revenue, broadly stable versus 54.9% in Q2FY26.
On the other hand, JM Financial’s revenue estimates are Rs 2,225 crore, up 22% YoY and 8% QoQ. The payments business is expected to grow at a high single digit sequentially, supported by festive consumption, though slower than Q2.
Financial services revenue growth is likely to moderate due to a lower share of DLG-linked loans, despite improved loan disbursals during the festive season, this brokerage said.
3) EBITDA
YES Securities expects the Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) to go up 34% sequentially to Rs 188 crore.
Total expenses (excluding PPC and ESOP costs) are expected to rise 5.6% QoQ, higher than the 2% growth in Q2FY26, but still supportive of margin expansion.
JM Financial projected EBITDA at Rs 171 crore, reflecting a 20% QoQ increase.
Flat fixed costs are expected to drive strong operating leverage, offsetting pressures from changes in revenue mix.
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4) Margins
YES Securities said that the EBITDA margin excluding other income and before ESOP costs are estimated at 8.6%, an expansion of 176 bps QoQ. Margin improvement is driven by controlled cost growth and stable PPC as a proportion of payments revenue.
JM Financial sees the contribution margin to dip by around 150 bps QoQ due to the phasing out of DLG-related revenue. Despite this, EBITDA margin is expected to expand by about 80 bps QoQ, aided by operating leverage and flat fixed costs.
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