The addressable opportunity remains substantial. With an estimated 75–80 million obese individuals and a large proportion suffering from co-morbid conditions, the need for structured obesity management is becoming increasingly evident. GLP-1 penetration, which remained low due to patent protection, is now expected to rise meaningfully as affordability improves and distribution expands. Over the next 3–5 years, the market could scale to INR34–67 billion, driven by rising patient adoption and chronic therapy demand.
A key growth driver is the expanding prescriber base. While endocrinologists and diabetologists remain primary stakeholders, adoption is increasingly being supported by cardiologists, gastroenterologists, gynaecologists, and other specialists due to the multi-system impact of obesity and metabolic disorders. This broadening ecosystem is expected to accelerate awareness, referrals, and prescription volumes, reinforcing long-term demand visibility.
However, the sector faces structural challenges. The entry of over 10–15 players has intensified competition, leading to rapid market fragmentation and pricing pressures. Despite a large volume opportunity, individual revenue gains are likely to remain modest, with low single-digit contribution to overall sales for most participants. Limited prescription bandwidth—where physicians typically engage with only a handful of brands—further constrains market share potential, increasing the need for aggressive marketing and elevating promotional costs.
Pricing dynamics also reflect a clear stratification, with premium, mid-tier, and mass-market strategies co-existing. While this enhances accessibility, it accelerates commoditisation, weighing on margins across the value chain. Additionally, companies risk diverting focus from established portfolios amid heightened competition in this segment.
An emerging structural trend is the rising preference for next-generation therapies. Even as semaglutide drives awareness and category expansion, newer molecules with superior efficacy are witnessing faster uptake and stronger physician preference, indicating a potential shift in long-term market leadership.
Overall, the GLP-1 segment in India presents a compelling volume-led growth opportunity underpinned by strong demand fundamentals. However, the combination of pricing pressure, intense competition, and limited differentiation suggests that value capture may remain constrained, making scale and execution critical in navigating this evolving landscape.
Ajanta Pharma: Buy| Target Rs 3400
Ajanta Pharma is preparing to launch generic semaglutide post patent expiry of Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic/Wegovy in India, while continuing to expand its portfolio in high-growth segments such as dermatology, pain management, and nephrology. Ajanta Pharma’s long-term growth is driven by its expanding presence in branded generics across India, US, Africa, and Asia, with a focus on chronic therapies and new launches supporting sustained demand and deeper penetration in high-growth markets. Management expects mid-teens revenue growth with EBITDA margins around 27%, supported by expansion in Asia and Africa, a strong US product pipeline, and strategic addition of medical representatives to drive execution.
Sun Pharma: Buy| Target Rs 1940
Sun Pharma’s Innovation momentum remains a key growth pillar, with specialty and novel therapies scaling up meaningfully. USD1b+ innovative sales (ex-milestones) provide resilience against US pricing pressure, while strong domestic formulation execution, consistent market share gains, and ROW/EM stability underpin diversified, sustainable growth drivers. In 3QFY26, SUNP delivered in-line adjusted revenues and EBITDA 6% ahead of estimates, supported by robust DF growth and favorable mix. Margin expansion reflected execution strength, partly offset by continued weakness in US generics due to regulatory headwinds at select sites. We estimate EM+ROW revenues to reach INR230b over FY25-28 at 12% CAGR, while specialty sales grow 11% CAGR to USD1.7b. Sustained DF outperformance, rising innovative R&D intensity, and steady pipeline launches support earnings visibility.
(The author is Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research – Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services)
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)