Change reaction in 3 states; Assam keeps Biswas in HimantaIt was a day of dramatic upheavals. BJP finally managed to win the state that had virtually become its final frontier over the past 10 years, Tamil superstar Vijay made a stunning political debut and looks set to be the next chief minister of Tamil Nadu, while Congress got the better of CPM in Kerala, clearing the way for a Left-mukt Bharat. Amid the anti-incumbency wave, Himanta Biswa Sharma held firm, routing Congress to take BJP to the party’s first-ever majority of its own in Assam. The victory of NDA in tiny Puducherry may not be in the same league, but served to drive home the message that smart politics and good alliances can help incumbents entrench themselves. The political significance of BJP’s victory is enormous.
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It owes hugely to the continuing popularity of PM Narendra Modi, despite being at the helm for 12 years — a story of remarkable resilience in an era of ever-soaring expectations. It reinforces the message about the party’s countrywide dominance and, along with DMK’s loss in Tamil Nadu, will trigger an upheaval in INDIA bloc ranks, making the LS an easier place for the Modi govt. Congress has already begun warming up to Vijay at the cost of its “ideological brotherhood” with DMK. BJP is now in control of the entire east, with the exception of Jharkhand, where it is the principal opposition and can realistically hope for success in the 2029 state polls. A BJP-led Bengal can smoothen matters for the Centre on issues as diverse as GST and completion of border fencing. It will force “secular” players to take a fresh look at their playbook as they seek to negotiate the tension between expectations of large sections who are buying into Hindutva themes, and the need to cater to demands of Muslims. The presence of a sizeable Muslim population alone does not provide safe sanctuary from advancing Hindutva sentiments.
Victory in Bengal signals BJP’s reach beyond Hindi heartland
The import of the battle of WB transcends politics. It also signals the possibility of the theme of co- existing with regional distinctiveness, without compromising on its core. It also shows that the Hindi heartland roots of BJP are no longer the fetters they once were.
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Even in Kerala, BJP managed to win three seats, from none earlier. It is also a reminder that Modi, with his promise of development, national glory and “tough on security” credentials, can break through the resistance of satraps. Vijay also shattered the assumptions that had, because of their endurance, turned in- to certitudes — like the Dravidian duopoly where office had rotated between DMK and AIADMK over last five decades.
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His senior and “superstar” Rajinikanth, who had potential to challenge the establishment and was urged to take the plunge by his supporters, failed to summon courage. Vijay dared to dream big and has been rewarded for that. Awave of disgust with corruption and rising crimes against Dalits and women un- der DMK has brought him to the gates of Fort St George. DMK tried using a crude anti- Hindi and anti-Sanatan plank. It did not work, with a large number of Gen Z voters opting for the new promise: Vijay who, combining freshness with time-tested tricks like mangalsutras for women, managed to win over women while also peeling away the support of DMK among Dalits, Christians and Muslims.
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His resultant emergence as a stronger vehicle of anti- DMK sentiments seemed to have also helped attract votes that would have otherwise gone to AIADMK. He is on the verge of becoming the first Christian CM of Tamil Nadu, (the fourth one in the south after A K Antony, Y S Rajasekhara Reddy and Jagan Reddy). The loosening of the duopoly’s grip of the state can potentially create opportunities for diverse players: from Seeman to Congress and BJP. Vijay has, in any case, refrained from taking a hardline stand against the north and Sanatanis, and this opens up the possibility of better working ties between Centre and Chennai.
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Victory for Congress-led coalition in Kerala comes as a consolation trophy for Congress: something the party desperately needed to make a statement of its presence. But the success carries with itself the challenge of dealing with the perception of rising Hindu sentiment at a time when its dependence on the Indian Union Muslim League and Christian outfit Kerala Congress (Joseph) has grown. Of course, it also has to sort out the leadership issue, with V D Satheesan unlikely to give up his claim in favour of party brass’s favourite — K C Venugopal — who is not an MLA. For CPM, defeat marks not just loss of the only state where they held office, but further erosion as an electoral force. BJP’s victory in Assam was not in doubt. But its scale came as a surprise. The tally achieved despite decade-long incumbency and a determined effort for higher Muslim consolidation which saw Deobandi outfit Jamat-i-Ule-ma abandoning their own Badruddin Ajmal of AIUDF, showed smart footwork by CM Himanta Sarma who opposed Bangla-speaking Muslims, dubbing them Bangladeshi in- filtrators. He managed to rally non-Muslims, and his success has exposed Congress to the risk of appearing a pro-Muslim outfit; a vulnerability which may get enhanced because of its alliance with IUML in Kerala as well as the thinning support base among Hindus in different parts.