Indian equities head into the event on a weak footing. The Nifty ended the week just below the 24,000 mark at 23,997, down 0.73% for the week, while the Sensex slipped nearly 1% as elevated crude prices and relentless foreign selling kept sentiment under pressure.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net sellers for the tenth straight month in April, offloading around Rs 70,100 crore worth of Indian equities. So far in calendar 2026, overseas investors have pulled nearly Rs 2.4 lakh crore from local equities, pressured by a weaker rupee, rising US yields and crude oil hovering above $110 a barrel amid the Iran conflict.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net sellers for the tenth straight month in April, offloading around Rs 70,100 crore worth of Indian equities. So far in calendar 2026, overseas investors have pulled nearly Rs 2.4 lakh crore from local equities, pressured by a weaker rupee, rising US yields and crude oil hovering above $110 a barrel amid the Iran conflict.
Domestic institutions have partly cushioned the blow, pumping in Rs 51,000 crore in April, but analysts say Monday’s election outcome is unlikely to change the bigger market narrative.
What should investors do on Monday?
Exit polls currently point to the BJP holding an edge in Assam and making significant gains in West Bengal, while Tamil Nadu and Kerala are seen moving broadly along expected political lines.Nitant Darekar, Research Analyst at Bonanza, said state election result days have historically created headlines but not necessarily long-lasting market trends.
“State election result days are usually a sideshow for Nifty. The 2004 Lok Sabha shock remains the exception, not the rule. Most exit poll outcomes appear largely priced in, and India VIX at 17.44 suggests contained event risk rather than panic,” he said.
He added that Brent crude at $113-plus remains the bigger swing variable than Monday’s seat counts, and advised traders not to chase sharp opening moves as those often reverse after the first hour.
Paresh Bhagat, Chairman of Mangal Keshav Financial Services, expects the market to react, but within a contained range.
“We do not expect a sharp directional surprise. Nifty could move 1% to 1.5% either way depending on whether final results match or differ from exit polls. But the market is already pricing continuity, so scope for a major positive surprise looks limited,” he said.
He cautioned against aggressive event-based trading and said sustained market direction will continue to depend on earnings, liquidity and global cues. Still, there could be pockets of sectoral action if the BJP posts stronger-than-expected gains in West Bengal.
Ishan Tanna, Senior Associate at Ashika Capital, said a stronger BJP showing in Bengal may be read as a modest positive for policy-linked sectors.
“If BJP gains in West Bengal, markets may see it as better alignment between the Centre and state, which could support project execution, infrastructure rollout and policy implementation. That could be sentiment positive for capex, railways and power themes,” he said.
Technically, the 24,000 level remains critical. Analysts say a decisive move above 24,200-24,300 could trigger short covering and push the Nifty higher, while a break below 23,900 may invite fresh selling, especially if crude remains elevated and FIIs continue to exit.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)