Gold price prediction today: Gold prices have been stuck in a range for some time now and developments on the US-Iran front will determine trajectory, says Maneesh Sharma, AVP – Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.
- Gold prices gradually recovered after falling to $5,015 this week, while buying momentum slowed last week. This was due to firmer US dollar & diminishing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts that offset safe-haven demand from the escalating Middle East conflict.
- Oil prices surged above $115 per barrel for the first time since 2022 as the war with Iran entered its second week, fueling concerns about renewed global inflation.
- Disruptions intensified after oil tankers were effectively blocked from the Strait of Hormuz, prompting several Middle Eastern producers, including Kuwait, Iraq & UAE, to curb crude output.
- The surge in energy prices complicated the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, reinforcing expectations that rate cuts may be delayed and increasing the risk of stagflation, particularly after last week’s weak jobs report.
- Global bond markets posted one of their worst weekly losses in months, on concerns that war in the Middle East will renew upward pressure on inflation and force more hawkish pivots from central banks.
- Meanwhile, Silver which tumbled to below $80 per ounce since last week, recovered well to post solid gains with renewed weakness in dollar persisted after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that the conflict in the Middle East could soon come to an end.
Gold Price Outlook:
Gold bias expected to remain slightly positive as US macro cues due this week may offer fresh direction to precious metal complexWeekly View:
- Spot Gold (CMP $ 5171/Oz) – Slight positive bias with supports at $5,030–5,015/Oz levels.
- Spot Silver (CMP $ 88.30/Oz)– Volatile to Positive bias with higher side target at 92 – 93/Oz remains
The trajectory of bullion prices could depend on the duration & intensity of the conflict as global investors reassess risk exposure. Meanwhile diplomatic developments over Iran could be closely scrutinized during the week amid any indications of de-escalation could also lead to profit booking moves later in the week. Gold is trading around the $5,171 mark and has been stuck in a tight range since the past few days, beneath resistance at $5,275 – 5280 still clinging to its rising trend line from late February. Price’s might get a bit of support from the 200 day EMA at $5,014/oz, which is giving a pretty constructive medium-term picture.Gold upside resistance at around $5360 – 5370/oz in Spot still persists on a weekly closing basis as a sustainable close above the same gold could remain open for further upside momentum up to $5500 – 5600 levels. Meanwhile Silver being a less liquid market as compared to gold could remain volatile with a constructive medium term view.Macro cues from US including the CPI numbers due today could remain in focus while US GDP print on Friday could also provide fresh direction to prices. Gains in US CPI may show slowing momentum but still to remain above US FED 2 % target. Meanwhile, if US CPI comes moderately lower with GDP surprising to the downside could keep gold bias tilted towards upside resistance at around $ 5350 – 5370/Oz levels in spot for the coming week.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)