The Wall Street bank set a price target of Rs 1,944 for Adani Ports and Rs 310 for JSW Infrastructure, citing high entry barriers, industry consolidation, and strong pricing power as key drivers. Both targets are based on their fiscal 2028 estimated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
“Despite stock price outperformance (APSEZ/JSW Infra up 70%/68% vs NIFTY50 over the past three years), we believe these attributes of the sector are still not well appreciated and factored into stock prices,” JP Morgan said in a note.
Adani Ports, India’s largest private port operator with a domestic market share of 27.4%, is projected to grow revenue, EBITDA and profit after tax at a compound annual growth rate of 17%, 15% and 16%, respectively, over fiscal 2025-2028, according to JP Morgan. The company operates 15 domestic ports with a total annual capacity of 650 million tons and four international ports, aiming to reach 1 billion tons by 2030.
The port operator’s container market share has jumped to 45% from almost nothing two decades ago, while consolidated EBITDA margins stand at 60% and domestic margins at 74%. JP Morgan values the stock at 17 times fiscal 2028 estimated EBITDA.
JSW Infrastructure, backed by the execution capabilities of the JSW group, is on track to more than double capacity to 400 million tons per annum by fiscal 2030 from 177 million tons currently. The bank forecasts revenue, EBITDA and PAT CAGR of 38%, 30% and 21% over fiscal 2025-2028 for India’s second-largest private port operator.
“JSW Infrastructure, backed by strong execution capabilities of the JSW group and business relationships with group companies, is on track to more than double capacity,” JP Morgan said, assigning a price target based on 16 times fiscal 2028 estimated EBITDA.The brokerage highlighted that both companies are aggressively expanding into logistics and warehousing, diversifying revenue streams and enhancing margin potential. It noted that capacity expansion, rising trade volumes, and efficiency gains provide additional growth catalysts for the sector.
Adani Ports maintains a healthy balance sheet with net debt-to-EBITDA of 2.2 times, while JSW Infrastructure’s leverage is expected to remain below 3 times despite large capital expenditure plans, according to the note.