Here are 5 factors that will drive Indian stock market next week:
No Iran war peace talks?
US President Donald Trump said on Friday he was not satisfied with Iran’s latest proposal for talks related to the ongoing conflict, while Iran’s foreign minister indicated that Tehran remains open to diplomacy if the United States shifts its approach.Trump’s remarks suggest that the deadlock in the two-month-old conflict is likely to persist, even as he seeks to bring an end to a war that has remained largely unpopular among Americans.
He said later on Friday during a speech in Florida that the United States would not end its confrontation with Iran prematurely, warning against stepping back only to face the same issue again in a few years.
He reiterated that Iran would not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon and remains under growing pressure to break Tehran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, a key route that has disrupted roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows amid the ongoing conflict.
Oil above $100
Crude oil futures fell sharply on Friday from 4-year highs after Iran signalled a proposal to resume negotiations with the U.S., though prices remained on track for weekly gains as Tehran continued to block the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. Navy maintained restrictions on Iranian crude exports.
Brent crude for July settled at $108.17 per barrel, down $2.23 or 2.02%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $101.94, declining $3.13 or 2.98%.
Nuvama Institutional Equities noted that an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 million barrels pass per day, could drive crude oil prices into the $110–$150 range.
Meanwhile, a Haitong Futures note cited by Reuters stated that the ongoing ceasefire phase may be setting the stage for further conflict. It added that if U.S.-Iran negotiations fail to show meaningful progress by the end of April and tensions escalate again, oil prices could climb to fresh highs for the year.
Major Q4 earnings
Kotak Mahindra Bank, and FMCG giant DMart declared their March quarter earnings on Saturday. Avenue Supermarts, the operator of DMart, on Saturday reported a net profit of Rs 656.6 crore for the March quarter of FY26, marking a jump of 19% from Rs 550.90 crore posted in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year. The net profit is attributable to the equity holders of the company.
Kotak Mahindra Bank on Saturday reported a net profit of Rs 4,026.55 crore for the March quarter of FY26, marking a jump of 13.3% from Rs 3,552 crore posted in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.
Net interest income (NII) rose 8.1% year-on-year to Rs 7,876 crore, compared with Rs 7,284 crore in the same quarter last year.
Rupee at record low
The Indian rupee plunged to a record low of Rs 95.33 on Thursday as investors grew increasingly concerned about the economic risks posed by a sharp surge in crude oil prices to 2022 highs. The surge in oil to $125 and above levels has raised fears over India’s inflation-growth balance, given its dependence on energy imports, while also weighing on capital flows.
Immediate resistance is placed at Rs 95–Rs 95.20; a sustained breakout above this range could push the rupee to fresh all-time lows. On the downside, Rs 94.50 serves as immediate support, while Rs 94.30–Rs 94 marks a stronger support zone in case of near-term consolidation.
The near-term bias remains cautiously bullish, supported by persistent dollar demand, although any easing in geopolitical tensions could provide some short-term stability to the rupee.
Charts show nervousness
Nifty 50 continues to trade with a cautious undertone, hovering around the 24,000–24,100 zone after a mild recovery. Immediate resistance is seen in the 24,300–24,400 range, which remains a strong supply zone. A sustained move above this band is needed to revive momentum towards the 24,600–24,800 levels.
On the downside, 23,800 remains a crucial support, with a break below this level potentially opening the path towards 23,600–23,400, an area likely to act as a demand zone. Momentum indicators are currently neutral to slightly weak, reflecting a lack of strong conviction in the near term, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money said.
Amid persistent global uncertainties and mixed domestic cues, investors are advised to adopt a cautious and selective approach. While key sectors such as banking and IT may continue to underperform in the near term, select segments and themes are likely to provide support and generate opportunities, Ajit Mishra, SVP at Religare Broking said.
Traders should stay agile, avoid excessive leverage, and maintain disciplined risk management. With volatility expected to remain elevated, a hedged strategy and a focus on capital preservation are likely to be more prudent than aggressive positioning until clearer directional signals emerge.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)