The second largest Indian private lender is expected to report a net profit growth of 2-6% year-on-year in the December-ended quarter, ranging from Rs 12,390 crore to Rs 13,340 crore, according to estimates from Nomura, Kotak Securities, Nuvama Institutional Equities and Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL).
The bank could report a 4%-8% YoY uptick in net interest income (NII) at Rs 22,110 crore to Rs 22,940 crore in the quarter under review, suggesting a broadly resilient quarter with divergence in profitability and margin expectations.
Here’s what brokerages expect across key parameters:
1) PAT
– Nomura expects PAT at Rs 12,390 crore, down 2% YoY but up 9% QoQ.
– Kotak Securities pegs PAT at Rs 13,085 crore, up 4% YoY and 16% QoQ.
– Nuvama estimates PAT at Rs 13,340 crore, up 5.6% YoY and 17.9% QoQ.
– Motilal Oswal forecasts PAT at Rs 13,232 crore, up 4.8% YoY and 17% QoQ.
2) NII
– Nomura expects NII at Rs 22,700 crore, up 7% YoY and 4% QoQ.
– Kotak Securities estimates NII at Rs 22,110 crore, up 4% YoY and 1% QoQ.
– Nuvama pegs NII at Rs 22,940 crore, up 8.2% YoY and 4.6% QoQ.
– Motilal Oswal sees NII at Rs 22,813 crore, up 7.6% YoY and 4% QoQ.
3) PPoP (Pre-Provision Operating Profit)
– Nomura expects PPoP at Rs 28,250 crore, up 6% YoY and 4% QoQ.
– Kotak Securities estimates PPoP at Rs 17,782 crore, up 1% YoY and 2% QoQ.
– Nuvama pegs PPoP at Rs 18,600 crore, up 5.3% YoY and 7.2% QoQ.
– Motilal Oswal forecasts PPoP at Rs 18,498 crore, up 4.7% YoY and 6.6% QoQ.
4) NIM (Net Interest Margins)
– Nomura expects NIM at 4.2%, down 8 bps YoY and 2 bps QoQ due to repo rate transmission, partly offset by deposit repricing.
– Kotak Securities sees NIM at 4.1%, down 20 bps YoY and 10 bps QoQ.
– Nuvama estimates NIM at 4.29%, down 12 bps YoY and 1 bp QoQ.
5) Loans & deposits
– Nomura expects loans at Rs 15.29 lakh crore (up 14% YoY, 4% QoQ) and deposits at Rs 17.55 lakh crore (up 9% YoY, 6% QoQ).
– Nuvama pegs loans at Rs 15.36 lakh crore (up 14.5% YoY, 4.8% QoQ) and deposits at Rs 17.47 lakh crore (up 8.5% YoY, 5.3% QoQ).
– Motilal Oswal estimates loans at Rs 15.32 lakh crore (up 14% YoY) and deposits at Rs 17.45 lakh crore (up 8.4% YoY).
Also read: HDFC Bank Q4 preview: PAT seen stable with up to 10% YoY growth; NIM pressure persists. 8 things to watch
6) Asset quality
– Nomura expects provisions at Rs 1,580 crore, up 78% YoY but down 38% QoQ, with stable asset quality and likely sequential moderation in slippages.
– Nuvama estimates provisions at Rs 1,050 crore (up 18% YoY, down 58.9% QoQ) and slippages at Rs 5,200 crore (up 1% YoY, down 3% QoQ).
– Motilal Oswal expects gross NPA at 1.5% (down 20 bps YoY) and net NPA at 0.4% (flat YoY), indicating stable asset quality.
7) Credit cost
– Nomura pegs credit cost at 0.4%, up 15 bps YoY but down 29 bps QoQ, suggesting normalisation.
8) Key monitorables
Brokerages highlight that management commentary on margin trajectory, loan and deposit growth, and the impact of rate cuts on earnings will be key. Asset quality trends and the sustainability of low credit costs will also remain in focus.
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)